Decision Modelling

Medical finding make: Modeling the effect of public presentation! This lecture: ? Some theory ab step forward feignling ? once more: mannikin using determination trees ? After the break: sensitivity Analysis WHAT IS model & WHY IS IT USEFUL? ? Model: step-down of the real world, with solitary(prenominal) the most important components considered. ? Enables to work out what is in all probability to happen if you shambling particular decisions in health and healthcare ? Encourages medical decision-making to be explicit ? Explicitly shows the lift out decision (from >=2 options) at the clipping a decision is made, presumptuousness available data at that sentence. ? Helps to identify gaps in live evidence ? Statistically attractive : allows a cultivate of uncertainties to be confered and shows how these may come to the outcomes and, hence, the decision. Medical Decision do - dissimulation & Markov models 19-10-2010 3 WHAT IS GOO D bore IN role model? A good model should: ? reflect current clinical practice vs. an alternative ? be based on the high hat available data and assumptions where necessary ? cover an appropriate measure period (e.g. longer time horizon for chronic diseases) ? explore the question around data inputs and assumptions using sensitivity analyses. ? be transparent and reproducible totally models are wrong some(prenominal) are useful Medical Decision Making - Simulation & Markov models 19-10-2010 4 WAYS TO STUDY A SYSTEM formula AND KELTON, 2000 System Experiment with the tangible system Experiment with a model of the system Physical model Mathematical model Analytical solution Simulation Medical Decision Making - Simulation & Markov models 19-10-2010 5  audition WITH THE ACTUAL SYSTEM ? If attainable: ? No question whether the study is valid System ? However, oft non possible: ? Costly ? Disr uptive to the system ? System exponent not! exist ? Might take long time ? So, preferably use models Experiment with the actual system...If you want to digest a full essay, order it on our website: OrderEssay.net

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